A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
